I don’t think Trump cares about the alleged kompromat that may or may not exist.
He can just say it’s fake news
He can say it’s AI generated if any video/audio exists
He genuinely doesn’t care as he’s got away with so much other shit that would ruin anyone else’s career
His supporters don’t care
You can only use the kompromat once. One and done.
Russian leverage via kompromat I thought might be a thing but it’s so weird now.
I get that he sees everything as completely transactional now, I didn’t understand this a few months ago. But what would explain his behaviour and strategy towards Russia?
His actions re the contract over Ukraine’s mineral wealth is a clue I think. He just wants those minerals. Musk is tied in too. He wants the lithium for batteries. It’s complicated via the fact that a lot of the minerals are under Russian-occupied territory. So what, in these private conversations with Putin, has he been offered?
Even more complex is how he has backtracked on whether Ukraine get any territory back when they finish negotiating this ‘deal’. First he said they wouldn’t, now he says they might (in that press conference with Macron). He’s so unreliable though it might just all be bluster. Just trying to figure out his end goal. Ultimately whatever it is he and his family will benefit financially, no doubt.
A Theory of Trump Kompromat - Why the President is so nice to Putin, even when Putin might not want him to be: https://archive.ph/JFcWB
Not sure if I posted this before but that article from the New Yorker about what possible kompromat there could be is a good read and from 2018. The idea of the sistema too
Did you see Macron correcting Trump over Ukraine in their meeting?
Trump is getting everything in place for a full on coup of America. Putting only his most trusted people in places of power and corrupting and crippling the country to the point he thinks he’ll be unstoppable as he has full control.
Honestly I think that half the time he just spews whatever shit pops into his stupid shitty head in the moment and confuses everyone into thinking he has some plan
He was recruited by the KGB in the 80s and spent most of the intervening years doing rubbish, dodgy business deals and then the Apprentice as some sort of long game to secure the presidency?
His ego probably thought he’d two term it and do the damage in the last four years like he is now but now he really is in a rush to change Biden’s term that weren’t in his plans and take full control. Are we saying Melania is really his handler then? That would make sense why she has stayed with him. Haha.
I think with Trump ‘follow the money’ is the best line of enquiry.
There is a global trade war happening. It’s been going on for a long time but Europe and the US have pretty much been victims of it until now. Trump has hit the nuclear trade war button. Everyone is taking damage until they pick their sides.
Macron asked Trump not to fight with the EU but to restrict the war to China. The UK will be trying to do a similar deal. Canada will do a deal, etc…
Russia is different. It’s a BRICS member. Trump probably thinks he can spin the benefits of ending war at any cost and get Russia out of BRICS and onside with the rest of ‘us’.
If BRICS lose Russia and the other countries sign favourable trade agreements locking out India/China then Trump has won the trade war and secured the primacy of the US economy, the dollar, and in his estimation the future of the West.
“I’m going to get a little wonky and write about Donald Trump and negotiations. For those who don’t know, I’m an adjunct professor at Indiana University - Robert H. McKinney School of Law and I teach negotiations. Okay, here goes.
Trump, as most of us know, is the credited author of “The Art of the Deal,” a book that was actually ghost written by a man named Tony Schwartz, who was given access to Trump and wrote based upon his observations. If you’ve read The Art of the Deal, or if you’ve followed Trump lately, you’ll know, even if you didn’t know the label, that he sees all dealmaking as what we call “distributive bargaining.”
Distributive bargaining always has a winner and a loser. It happens when there is a fixed quantity of something and two sides are fighting over how it gets distributed. Think of it as a pie and you’re fighting over who gets how many pieces. In Trump’s world, the bargaining was for a building, or for the construction work, or subcontractors. He perceives a successful bargain as one in which there is a winner and a loser, so if he pays less than the seller wants, he wins. The more he saves the more he wins.
The other type of bargaining is called integrative bargaining. In integrative bargaining the two sides don’t have a complete conflict of interest, and it is possible to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Think of it, not a single pie to be divided by two hungry people, but as a baker and a caterer negotiating over how many pies will be baked at what prices, and the nature of their ongoing relationship after this one gig is over.
The problem with Trump is that he sees only distributive bargaining in an international world that requires integrative bargaining. He can raise tariffs, but so can other countries. He can’t demand they not respond. There is no defined end to the negotiation and there is no simple winner and loser. There are always more pies to be baked. Further, negotiations aren’t binary. China’s choices aren’t (a) buy soybeans from US farmers, or (b) don’t buy soybeans. They can also (c) buy soybeans from Russia, or Argentina, or Brazil, or Canada, etc. That completely strips the distributive bargainer of his power to win or lose, to control the negotiation.
One of the risks of distributive bargaining is bad will. In a one-time distributive bargain, e.g. negotiating with the cabinet maker in your casino about whether you’re going to pay his whole bill or demand a discount, you don’t have to worry about your ongoing credibility or the next deal. If you do that to the cabinet maker, you can bet he won’t agree to do the cabinets in your next casino, and you’re going to have to find another cabinet maker.
There isn’t another Canada.
So when you approach international negotiation, in a world as complex as ours, with integrated economies and multiple buyers and sellers, you simply must approach them through integrative bargaining. If you attempt distributive bargaining, success is impossible. And we see that already.
Trump has raised tariffs on China. China responded, in addition to raising tariffs on US goods, by dropping all its soybean orders from the US and buying them from Russia. The effect is not only to cause tremendous harm to US farmers, but also to increase Russian revenue, making Russia less susceptible to sanctions and boycotts, increasing its economic and political power in the world, and reducing ours. Trump saw steel and aluminum and thought it would be an easy win, BECAUSE HE SAW ONLY STEEL AND ALUMINUM - HE SEES EVERY NEGOTIATION AS DISTRIBUTIVE. China saw it as integrative, and integrated Russia and its soybean purchase orders into a far more complex negotiation ecosystem.
Trump has the same weakness politically. For every winner there must be a loser. And that’s just not how politics works, not over the long run.
For people who study negotiations, this is incredibly basic stuff, negotiations 101, definitions you learn before you even start talking about styles and tactics. And here’s another huge problem for us.
Trump is utterly convinced that his experience in a closely held real estate company has prepared him to run a nation, and therefore he rejects the advice of people who spent entire careers studying the nuances of international negotiations and diplomacy. But the leaders on the other side of the table have not eschewed expertise, they have embraced it. And that means they look at Trump and, given his very limited tool chest and his blindly distributive understanding of negotiation, they know exactly what he is going to do and exactly how to respond to it.
From a professional negotiation point of view, Trump isn’t even bringing checkers to a chess match. He’s bringing a quarter that he insists on flipping for heads or tails, while everybody else is studying the chess board to decide whether its better to open with Najdorf or Grünfeld.”
— David Honig
I have trouble believing trump can think that far ahead! Can he really strategise? He doesn’t strike me as a 3D chess player. What @ciaran posted from Reddit was a really good summary I thought. I don’t think he can visualise more than one day at a time
one of the LBC presenters earlier was talking about this rare minerals for American support deal earlier. apparently the original idea had come from Zelenskyy. he had asked Biden if he’d give them more aid and ground/air support in return for rare minerals and it was turned down
Trump seems to have picked up on this but the US doesn’t actually how much of these minerals are even there. i suppose the downsize is that knowing Trump if he didn’t get what he wanted he’d just allow Putin to do whatever he wanted and back out of the deal (or he’d get what he wanted and still back out)
